It’s early December 2023 in Kampala, and the government of Uganda is eagerly preparing for the long awaited Non Aligned Movement and G-77 summits to be held In January of the next year . As the mood is heightened due to the fact that such events shall improve the country’s international relations, there is a sense that amongst some both in government and civil society, that these are some signs of Uganda’s current international geo – political standing especially with her western partners. As the summits represent not only represent Uganda 🇺🇬 as the home of the global south (2024 chairmanship) but also that the organization is a subtle if not a direct contradiction to the western organizations or hemogemony that Kampala of recent times, is keen to develop a distance with . All these coupled with the various terror warnings the western embassies were keen to stress during the Nyege Nyege Festival ( one of Uganda’s biggest musical festivals) . A relief the president and the security forces were keen that the embassies listened to in thier respective addresses afterwards . So how did relations between Kampala and the west fall apart and what does the future hold .
BACKGROUND .
Uganda 🇺🇬 is a former British protectorate (1894-1962) and attained independence peacefully unlike other African nations such as Angola , Mozambique , Zimbabwe etc . This is crucial to understand especially during Cold War politics during the independence movement in which alignment with the East ( Soviet Union & China ) was crucial for pro independence resistance movements. However, 7 years after independence, the Obote regime started a policy of leftist ideology with the Common Man’s Charter / Move to the Left of 1969 . A clear indication of socialism in the country which was inspired by neighboring Tanzania’s Ujaama policy . However, this must have angered the western powers as its rumored that Britain and Israel were behind the 1971 coup that bought Idd Amin to power . After the 1972 Asian expulsion from Uganda, the Amin regime became increasingly anti – Israel and pro – Soviet ( according to documents later recovered from state research bureau) . But after the fall of Amin in 1979 and the subsequent Obote regime , Uganda restored diplomatic ties with the west especially US and Britain 🇬🇧.
Post 1986 Uganda 🇺🇬 was a Uganda with a great opportunism . However it was a time , geopolitic Aspects of the region rose spurred on by regional conflicts. Case in. Point was the LRA conflict, in which the Ugandan government was allied with the west to defeat the rebel outfit that was backed the Sudanese army, that was backlisted by the US government for aiding terrorism . As the relationship continued, Uganda received enormous financial support especially in its fight against HIV AIDS , poverty alleviation etc . Museveni on his part , who was then seen as a darling of the west, was famously praised by American President Bill Clinton during his visit to Uganda as “Among Africa’s generation of new leaders.” Ugandas various participation in various activities during this time such as during the establishment of AGOA , signing of the Rome statute , collaboration in the war on terror & even hosting of CHOGM strengthened the relations.
However, post 2011 , everything would gradually change in terms of Uganda- Western relations.
THE TURNAROUND IN RELATIONS
After the 2011 general elections and the resultant walk to work protests, increased focus was placed on Uganda’s political climate . The Arab spring that removed most of Africa’s dictators like Gadaffi and Mubarak increasingly put Museveni in the spotlight of Africa’s remaining dictators . But the straw that broke the camel back was the signing of the Anti- Homosexuality bill in 2014 . Thereafter, the Obama administration cut significant funding to Uganda 🇺🇬 . After the 2016 elections, where all the western observers including the EU and commonwealth election observers concluded that they weren’t free and fair , tensions seemed to have started to rise. During the inauguration ceremony , where the among the guests was ICC indicted Sudan president Omar Bashir , Museveni seemed to have wanted to portray a pro Africanist anti western narrative. A narrative that he still holds up to this day . Defing the ICC arrest warrant and famously stating that Africa is for Africa and should be left alone to solve her problems .
With the arrival of the people power movement and the rise of Bobi wine in the political scene. Uganda’s politics and human rights situation was again in the international spotlight. Despite the claims that Bobi wine is a “western prodigy” , he proved to be significant threat to the government. After the deadly November 2020 protests and subsequent 2021 elections , there has been an increase in the sanctions issued by the US towards Ugandan officials. Obviously, this being met with rebuke and condemnation by the Ugandan authorities with the latest being aimed at the MPs who passed the Anti – Homosexuality bill of 2023 .
WAY FORWARD .
Currently, there seems to be a relatively low point compared to the previous 15 years especially with the sanctions and now the removal of Uganda from the AGOA trade agreement. However, Uganda 🇺🇬 remains a key partner for US especially in the war on terror especially in Somalia and the fight against IS linked ADF in Eastern Congo . A partnership that’s a win- win for both parties . However , with the increased scrutiny on Uganda’s democracy and human rights record, the Ugandan government may seem to seek other partners . Case in point is China 🇨🇳 and Russia . Over the past few years , relations have steadily improved with officials from Chinas National People’s Congress standing committee and Russian foreign minister Mr. Lavrov visiting the country . It’s still seen if Uganda will soon completely shift to the east but for now , that’s not a possibility, as Uganda and The West need each other in areas of mutual interest.
Written by
Rugaba John Paul
Sangyin Journals